Paul, Jake v Tyson, Mike

Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Odds: Predicting the Winner

At AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on November 15, 2024, Jake Paul will challenge one of the greatest boxers of all time, Mike Tyson.

This fight is more than a boxing match; it's a global spectacle, streamed live by Netflix. It’s the platform’s first live boxing event and is likely to attract massive audiences, especially from regions where traditional pay-per-view boxing is less popular.

Jake Paul may be a social media sensation, but it’s Mike Tyson’s legendary power and unpredictability that make this a must-watch event. Tyson represents old-school, raw-power boxing, while Jake Paul embodies the modern, influencer-driven world of sports entertainment.

Mike Tyson’s Power vs. Jake Paul’s Stamina

For most boxing fans, Tyson is a living legend. Betting is often emotional, and many fans will bet on Tyson just because, well, he’s Mike Tyson. Many will place bets out of sheer admiration, hoping that “Iron Mike” can turn back the clock and deliver a classic knockout.

However, the odds for this fight currently favor Jake Paul, giving him an over 70% chance to win. Meanwhile, Tyson is seen as more of a wildcard. Why? To put it simply:

• At 27, Paul is in his physical prime and has been living and breathing boxing for the past four years. He’s been consistently active in the ring since 2020, steadily improving with every fight.

• Tyson’s power is legendary, but he’s 58 and has not fought professionally since 2005. Boxing isn’t just about brute strength; it’s about stamina, speed, and endurance—all of which are critical against a younger, more active opponent. 

• Almost 20 years of retirement and a 31-year age gap make Tyson more of an underdog.

Match rules: The fight will last eight rounds, two minutes each (shorter than standard rounds) and will be fought with 14-ounce gloves, which cushion punches and reduce knockout potential. While these rules were likely implemented to make the match safer for Tyson, they also reduce his chances of leveraging his historic knockout power. 

Can Tyson Defy the Odds?

History shows that significant age gaps (especially when one fighter is over 50) heavily favor the younger competitor; however, there are always exceptions. Remember Foreman vs. Moorer?

Back in 1994, George Foreman, then a 45-year-old heavyweight, stepped into the ring to challenge Michael Moorer, a 26-year-old champion in his prime, and won, becoming the oldest heavyweight champion in history.

It’s important to note that Jake Paul isn’t Michael Moorer. Jake is a polarizing figure in the world of boxing, largely because most of his opponents weren’t professional boxers. Instead, they were influencers, athletes from other sports, and even retired MMA stars, like Ben Askren and Anderson Silva. In 2023, Jake Paul faced his first fight against a professional boxer (Tommy Fury) and ended up losing, highlighting his inexperience against skilled professional boxers.

Tyson’s career, on the other hand, spanned decades. His fights were against some of the best boxers in the world, with a historic record of 50 wins (44 by knockout) and 6 losses.

Tyson turned professional at just 18 years old and became the youngest heavyweight champion in history at 20. Even at 58, his knockout potential is very real, and one clean punch could easily end the fight early. 

Betting Against a Legend

Let’s not forget: Mike Tyson is no ordinary 58-year-old. Even though Jake Paul enters the fight as the clear favorite, Tyson’s knockout power and decades of experience make him a threat until the very last second. Whether Paul proves the odds right or Tyson defies them, this fight is destined to be one for the ages.