Should you bet on underdog teams in football?
Betting on football is as exciting as the sport itself. Whether you play the game or bet on your favourite team or players, there’s so much fun and excitement when it comes to football in general.
With players like Lionel Messi and Christiano Ronaldo, it won’t come as a surprise that most fans will gravitate towards this sport. Even with these star players, there are also several teams with competitive rosters. This is why it’s important to bet smartly because you’ll never know how the games will end up. Fortunately, there are ways for you to bet wisely like learning the concept of the favourites and the underdogs.
At first glance, you can immediately understand the concepts of these two terms because they are exactly what they mean as the name suggests. However, did you know that when you bet on the underdogs, you’ll have the best chances of having the highest payouts?
The favourites vs underdogs
The favourites and the underdogs are obviously opposite concepts. The former is where the bookmakers have the most faith in because they are either the best club in a certain matchup or simply have the better roster overall.
Sometimes, betting on the favourites doesn't go in your favour. An example of this is the fact that the payouts for the favourites are much less compared to the underdogs. This is looking past all the risks involved when betting on either matchup.
On the other hand, the underdogs are the least likely to win according to bookmakers. Therefore, they have higher payouts compared to the favourites because it is considered as a risky bet.
Advantages of betting on the favourites
The greatest advantage of betting on the favourites is having the highest chances of winning. Most of the time, wagering on the favourites gives the punter a huge favour because they don’t need to worry about their team/bet losing.
Based on records, the favourites win for the most part, which is why their odds are ridiculously high and have the lowest payouts because there are very few risks involved. However, football is a very arbitrary sport, and you’ll never know who will win at the end of the day.
Advantages of betting on the underdogs
While most say that underdog betting is disadvantageous, it’s actually the opposite. Remember, the football is round and anything can happen in a short notice.
While figuring out the favourites from a bookmaker’s perspective is calculated, nobody can calculate bad plays and lucky goals, no matter how smart the algorithm can be. This is why betting on the underdogs yields higher payouts.
Believe it or not, there are several underdogs winning in any football league. The most recent underdog story was when Leicester FC won the 2016 English Premier League title after finishing 14th the previous season.
Perhaps this is the reason why you can never count out the underdogs, because anything can happen to one of the world’s most competitive sports.
When should you bet on the underdog
Depending on how you look at the odds and what type you prefer, the underdog betting system differs heavily when it comes to the wager and payout system. So, how does underdog betting work? When you bet on the underdogs, you’ll notice that the payouts are way more than the favourites. Therefore, you might find odds that look like this:
Decimal odds are denoted as numbers that will help you when using the underdog betting strategy. To calculate, all you need to do is multiply them with the amount of your wagers. For instance, if you wager USTD 100 on the underdogs, then you’ll be receiving USTD 200. If you bet on the favourites, you’ll only receive USTD 150.
The American odds pose a different challenge for new punters. Fortunately, they are easy to understand. The odds are presented with a positive (+) and negative (-) symbol.
The negative symbol denotes the favourites while the positive symbol represents the underdogs. To read the odds properly, you need a USTD 100 wager basis for every bet.
Betting on the favourites will require you to wager USTD 120 to win USTD 100 if the game has your wagered team winning. On the other hand, knowing what is underdog in betting will have you wager USTD 100 to win USTD 110.
The total payout for each is 220 and 210 respectively. However, you’ll need to pay for more when betting on the favourites than betting on the underdogs which means the payouts are higher for the underdogs.
How often do underdogs win?
Did you know that 19% of the games are won by the underdogs and are among the biggest underdog wins in football? Conversely, 21% are won by a draw. The Trinity Mirror Data Unit made a lot of analyses when comparing the odds offered by official bookmakers for every Premier League match to determine the favourites and the underdogs winning bets.
Who are the underdogs in football?
With the popularity of football, there are a lot of leagues to bet on. If you want to take the risk and win a higher payout, here are some of the underdogs to watch out for:
Premier League underdogs
When speaking of the underdog football teams, these are clubs that were able to finish well in the table by the end of the season. While not always, these teams are consistent in maintaining their place in the league for several years.
West Ham United
West Ham United is one of the most consistent clubs in the underdogs club. Their record was subpar during the past few years, but they quickly bounced back and retained their place in the EPL table.
Leicester City is probably the biggest underdogs in the history of sports coming back from relegation and winning the Premier League title the season after.
Everton is another underdog in football that made a lot of great strides late into the season after getting threatened multiple times of getting relegated by the end of the season.
Brighton is one of the most prolific underdogs because they always maintain either the top 8 or even middle table status for the whole season. This means that they are constantly within one of the best underdogs brackets among the myriad of clubs in the league.
Why should you bet on the underdog
If you’re still counting out the major possibilities of earning when betting on the underdogs, then perhaps these reasons will tell you otherwise. However, is it really that great of an idea to bet on the underdogs? Discover how unique betting on the underdogs really is and find ways to make the most out of your wagers:
The field might favour the underdogs
If you’ve ever delved into the world of sports, know that some fans don't want to root for the best club or team in a certain league because overpowered teams like Manchester City are ‘villains’ in the eyes of hardcore EPL fans. While not always, a great underdog story is one of the reasons why sports like football are very interesting to watch.
Yes, the underdogs are always the darlings of football. When they win, the whole city celebrates, and the world joins them.
Underdogs provide greater payouts
As mentioned above, the underdog’s payouts are much larger than that of the favourites. However, you get the risk of losing your bets because bookmakers believe that the underdogs are the inferior club when they face off in a match.
Nevertheless, underdogs can and have won before. It’s still a great way of earning more payouts because by nature, they provide one of the highest winnings in any market when sports betting.
How risky is betting on the underdogs
There are obvious risk factors when betting on the underdogs. Among them is the fact that they usually have an inferior roster compared to the other team. However, note that the underdogs reached a certain point in the tournaments that made them formidable competitors.
Moreover, an inferior roster is the main reason why it's incredibly risky to bet on the underdogs. They require lower wagers, but they are still wagers nonetheless. Bookmakers take so much time analysing who the underdogs are because they carefully nitpick who has the better players, team synergy, and manager.
Speaking of favourites betting, another risk factor aside from losing your bet is the fact that you could’ve wagered on the favourites to win it all. When this happens, you will incur an opportunity cost that will hinder your chances of winning.
Underdog betting tips you need to know
Betting on the underdogs might sound a bit simple, but it really isn’t the case for most of the time. While not overly complicated, you still need a lot of strategies before you can finally master how to bet football underdogs. Check out some that will help you win wagers below:
Do underdog bets analysis (Kelly Strategy)
The Kelly strategy states that you should search markets for lucrative underdog bets. You must conduct in-depth bet analysis over a variety of marketplaces to land such fantastic markets.
Be aware that the odds of the underdog winning are higher the more profitable the underdog bets are. Therefore, browse through many games until you find the underdog wagers with the best odds.
Learn how to read the probability of an outcome
You must assess the viability of an outcome after searching the marketplace for worthy underdog bets. Multiply the odds offered by your wager to achieve this.
Even with modest risk, a solid underdog bet will increase your earnings. Thus, choosing the underdog wager that has the best chance of paying off max winnings is better rather than just any underdog wager.
Know the importance of the football matches
The underdog sports betting odds depend on a wide range of variables. The significance of the game is one of the most important factors as well. So, it’s best to determine the game's importance by considering whether it is a friendly match, a cup game, a league game, or a championship.
The significance of the game has a big impact on the underdog betting odds. For instance, less important games are typically more likely to have favourable underdog odds. Since most of the teams aren't really competitive during games like the pre-season where the weight of the matches don’t level with the World Cup, for instance.
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Words by: Vonn Consul
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