Nation’s Pride: Top medal predictions at the 2024 Paris Olympics

The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris kicks off in July 2024. As the world gears up for this grand event, the excitement and anticipation are solid. Which countries will rise to the occasion and secure the most medals?

This year’s Olympics follows the exciting events of the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics where USA, China, and Japan won most of the medals in various events. Watch and wager on this year’s Summer Olympics—see if these countries dominate the medal table or if other countries deliver exciting upsets:

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United States

The United States is the most celebrated nation at the Summer Olympics and is highly favoured to win the most gold medals in Paris 2024. As of the moment, the US has a total of 2,959 medals, with 1,175 of them being gold. Based on the latest Gracenote's Virtual Medal Table prediction, the US is projected to obtain 123 medals, an increase from the 113 medals they got in 2020.

Top medal-winning sports

They are projected to win medals in 27 different sports and disciplines at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Three of the top medal-winning sports historically for the US are the following:

• Athletics: Among the over 2,000 Olympic medals won by the USA, 827 of those were won in track and field events. They have been consistently the best nation in this sport since 1984.

• Swimming: A total of 578 medals were awarded to USA Swimming athletes overall, 257 of those are gold. The USA is also the home country of Michael Phelps, the athlete with the most total medals in the Olympics swimming, with 28, including 23 golds.

• Shooting: Home to Carl Osburn, the top-ranking athlete for Olympic shooting who has snagged 11 medals in total. Overall, the USA has a total of 116 Olympic medals for shooting.

China

China is one of the top nations with the most medals earned at the Summer Olympics. They’ve snatched up 285 gold medals, 231 silver medals, and 197 bronze medals, making 713 medals. At the Paris 2024, they’re expected to win 89 medals, similar to the medals they got in 2020. What's even more exciting is that 35 of those are expected to be gold which is close to their 2020 gold medal haul of 38.

Top medal-winning sports

Among the key medal-winning sports that China is anticipated to excel at in the Paris 2024 Olympics are the following:

• Diving: China dominates diving, with a whopping 81 medals, 47 of them being gold. Their top diving athlete is Wu Minxia, who has seven medals, making her the highest-ranking diving athlete in the Summer Olympics.

• Weightlifting: Second on China’s medal ranking with 62 medals, 38 of which are gold, 16 are silver, and eight are bronze. They have consistently been the best nation in this category since 2000, taking home 15 medals since then (except for the 2020 Olympics where they took home 14).

• Table tennis: With 60 overall medals won, China is leading in table tennis. They are also home to the top-ranking table tennis athlete overall, Ma Long, who has five total gold medals.

Great Britain

Great Britain holds a proud spot as the third-best country in the all-time Summer Olympics medal table. They’ve racked up 950 medals, 296 of which are gold. In the Paris 2024 Olympics, their athletes are poised to build on their success and add more to their record. They are projected to win 66 medals, higher than the 64 medals they bagged in Tokyo 2020.

Top medal-winning sports

The success of Great Britain in securing medals covers across 20 sports over the years, and according to the VMT prediction, this will continue. Among the 20 sports, here are the top medal-winning sports for Great Britain:

• Cycling: Great Britain is the home to the current top cycling athlete in the Olympics, Jason Kenny, who has 9 total medals. Cycling is Great Britain's second top medal-winning sport, with 100 overall medals, 38 of those being gold.

• Rowing: The country excels in rowing, with 70 total medals, including 31 golds. This makes them rank third in the medal table for this category. Five of those gold accumulated by Great Britain belongs to Steve Redgrave who is the most successful male rower in Olympic history.

• Athletics: Athletics is where Great Britain truly shines, decorated with 210 medals overall, 55 of which are gold. Among the British athletes to watch in athletics are Emma Finucane and Ben Pattison, who could bring home medals for the team.

France

France is gearing up for a big leap in their medal count compared to the 2020 Summer Olympics. From the 33 medals they achieved in 2020, they are projected to attain 55 medals. In the overall medal rankings, France is also among the top ten, sitting comfortably in 6th place with 889 medals, 264 being gold medals.

Top medal-winning sports

In the Paris 2024 Olympics, France is expected to win medals in up to 25 different sports, setting a new record. The country has historically achieved medals in 15 to 19 sports at the Olympics. France is known for excelling in the following sports:

• Cycling: Cycling is one of France's premier medal-winning sports, with 93 medals. Impressively, 41 of those medals are gold, more than any other country has won in cycling at the Olympics.

• Fencing: Fencing is France's top medal-winning sport, with 123 medals. France is the second most successful nation in Olympic fencing, trailing only Italy. They have won 44 gold medals in fencing, the second-highest total.

• Athletics: Athletics is one of the sports where France excels, having won 70 total Olympic medals in the discipline, 13 of which are gold medals.

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Australia

Australia is continuously rising and aiming to win 50 medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics, a new record in their performance since the Athens 2004 Olympics after disappointing results. Among the 50 medals, 13 are projected to be gold, 19 silver, and 18 bronze. This projection is higher than the 46 medals they brought home from Tokyo 2020.

Top medal-winning sports

The success of the Australian team at the Paris 2024 Olympics is expected to be heavily driven by their performance in swimming. Some of the top medal-winning sports for Australia include:

• Swimming: Australia’s swimming team is their pride and joy. They are expected to contribute to their medal haul in the 2024 Paris Olympics. They’ve amassed 213 medals in swimming, 69 of which are gold. They have the second most total medals and gold medals in swimming.

• Athletics: Australia also excels in athletics, with 76 medals: 21 gold, 27 silver, and 28 bronze. Australian women contributed a total of 40 medals while men have won 36 medals. Among the recent medalists are Kelsey-Lee Barber and Ashley Moloney.

• Cycling: Cycling is another strong suit for Australia, with 54 total medals overall. A total of 15 of those are gold medals. Among the Australian cyclists to watch out for in the upcoming Olympics is Grace Brown who missed a spot on the podium in Tokyo 2020 and is aiming to fight back and add medals to their country's record.

Japan

Unlike the projections for other top medal-ranking countries that show them further surpassing their previous medal records, the outlook for Japan is different. After their excellent performance at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics where they won 58 medals, Japan is expected to fall short and achieve 49 medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.

While the team enjoyed home advantage at the 2020 Olympics, they may not be as pronounced in Paris. Olympic performance often varies between different games, so they are expected to do a more average level rather than maintain their impressive peak in Tokyo 2020.

Top medal-winning sports

Based on the medal forecast, Japan is expected to achieve 49 medals across 17 different sports at the Paris 2024 Olympics, down from the 19 recorded sports they competed in at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Among the sports where Japan excels are:

• Judo: Judo is deeply ingrained in Japanese culture. This has allowed Japan to develop a massive talent pool of skilled judoka, making them the dominant force in the Olympics. Japan is leading the overall nation ranking, it is also their top medal-winning sport, with 96 medals, 48 of which are gold.

• Wrestling: Japan's second most medal-winning sport is wrestling, with 76 overall medals, including 37 gold. They are also home to the top wrestling athlete in the Olympics, Kaori Icho, who has won 4 gold medals, tying the record held by Cuba's Mijaín López.

• Gymnastics: Gymnastics is Japan's third most medal-winning sport, with 103 medals, including 33 gold and 34 silver. The sport also places a strong cultural emphasis on the country, allowing Japanese gymnasts to naturally excel.

Italy

Italy is the ninth top medal-winning country in the history of the Olympics, with a total of 618 medals. While they thrived in the 2020 Summer Olympics, projections indicate they can further surpass that achievement. Italy is predicted to win 47 medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics, seven more than the 40 medals they achieved in Tokyo 2020.

Top medal-winning sports

According to the forecasts, Italy is expected to excel in 21 sports at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Among those, the following three sports have historically been their top medal-winning events:

• Fencing: Fencing is Italy's strongest sport expertise, and they are currently ranked first in Olympic fencing. They have amassed 130 medals, 49 of which are gold. Edoardo Mangiarotti stands out as fencing's top-ranking athlete with an impressive 13 medals to his name.

• Cycling: Italy's second top medal-winning sport is another with 63 medals: 35 gold, 16 silver, and 13 bronze. The country is the third-winningest nation in the overall medal table for cycling in the summer Olympics, only behind France and Great Britain.

• Athletics: Athletics is also a strong force for Italy, with a current total of 65 medals, 24 of which are gold. They are the ninth winningest team in the overall Olympic medal table.

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