US Open Early Rounds: Seeds in Trouble and Updated Outright Odds
Your US Open early rounds preview starts with one name: Jannik Sinner. The world No. 1 and Wimbledon champion has withdrawn from the 2026 US Open with a right knee injury, and that single decision has reshaped which seeds you need to watch for trouble and how the updated outright odds now read before a ball is even struck.
What the US Open Early Rounds Mean Before the Draw
The 2026 US Open main draw does not start until Sunday, 30 August, so nobody has actually lost a match yet.
What is already changing is the seeding picture. Withdrawals can move lower-ranked players into seeded positions, while the eventual draw determines which contenders receive favourable or difficult opening paths.
The seedings are based on the relevant ATP and WTA rankings before the tournament. However, the actual first-round matchups will not be confirmed until the US Open draw ceremony on Thursday, 27 August.
That means the current picture is useful for identifying potential trouble spots, but it is not yet a final list of first-round matchups.
Sinner's Withdrawal Changes the US Open Early Rounds
Sinner has withdrawn from the US Open with a right knee injury. His last match was his Wimbledon final victory earlier this year.
His absence removes one of the biggest favourites from the men's field and changes the balance of the US Open outright odds.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has also withdrawn from the men's tournament. Further withdrawals can still affect the seeding order before the draw is made.
For bettors and tennis fans, the important point is simple: the US Open early rounds will now have a different competitive landscape without Sinner in the draw.
Who Moves Up the Men's Seeding Order
Alexander Zverev is set to take the men's No. 1 seed following Sinner's withdrawal.
Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, has confirmed that he is fit to play after his recent injury concerns. Novak Djokovic is also among the leading names positioned near the top of the seeding order.
That trio will attract plenty of attention once the draw is released. Their exact first-round opponents and potential fourth-round and quarter-final paths will be particularly important for the US Open early rounds.
A favourable draw could shorten the perceived route to the second week. Conversely, an awkward first or second-round matchup could cause the outright price of a leading contender to drift.
The Women's US Open Draw Has Its Own Injury Cloud
The women's draw has its own uncertainty heading into the US Open early rounds.
Aryna Sabalenka arrives as the defending champion and women's No. 1 seed. Elena Rybakina, meanwhile, has been dealing with heel discomfort, which could affect her participation.
Emma Raducanu has also withdrawn with an ongoing leg injury.
As a result, the women's seeding picture can still change before the Thursday draw ceremony. That makes the final bracket particularly important when assessing the US Open women's seeds and potential first-round upsets.
How the Outright Odds Have Reacted
The withdrawal of a major favourite can significantly affect US Open outright odds.
The probability previously attached to Sinner is redistributed across the remaining contenders. As a result, leading players can shorten in the outright market even before they play their opening matches. However, the draw can move prices again.
A difficult section containing several highly ranked players could make one contender's route to the final considerably harder. Meanwhile, a favourable quarter can increase market confidence in another player.
For that reason, it makes sense to compare the US Open outright odds both before and after Thursday's draw.
US Open Early-Round Upsets to Watch
The US Open early rounds often produce some of the tournament's biggest surprises.
Seeded players cannot meet each other immediately, so the first major test for many contenders comes against an unseeded player.
The bottom of the seeding list is particularly interesting. A player just inside the seeded positions can avoid another seed in the opening rounds, while an unseeded opponent can create a much more dangerous matchup. Form also matters.
Players arriving in New York with strong results during the US hard-court swing can pose a serious threat to seeds carrying limited match practice or recent injury concerns.
It is also important to remember that seeding only protects players from certain matchups in the opening rounds. From the third round onward, the potential opposition becomes considerably tougher.
Key Dates Before the First Ball
The main dates to watch are:
· 27 August: US Open draw ceremony
· 27 August: Qualifying concludes
· 30 August: Main draw begins
· Early September: Second-week knockout rounds
· 13 September: Men's singles final
The tournament is also offering record prize money in 2026, with the singles champions set to receive $5.5 million each.
The first round is spread across three days, which means the US Open early rounds will provide several days of matchups before the tournament moves into its deeper stages.
That matters for outright bettors because the market can continue moving as individual contenders progress through the draw.
Where to Follow the Draw and Odds on Sportsbet.io
You can track the US Open outright and match odds as the seeding list gets confirmed and the draw drops on Thursday. For qualifying-week context and the names who came through, our US Open Qualifying Watch piece covers the dark horses worth knowing before the main draw starts.
Once matches begin, live tennis odds and in-play betting update through every set, so you are not locked into a pre-match price once the early rounds get underway.
Responsible Gambling
A Grand Slam runs for two weeks, and the early rounds alone are spread across several days of near-constant match coverage. Set a budget before the draw even lands, and treat every update to the outright market as information, not a reason to chase a bet you have already placed.
If you want support managing your betting, BeGambleAware and GamCare both offer free, confidential advice. You can also use the tools on the Sportsbet.io Responsible Gambling page, including deposit limits and self-exclusion options.
FAQs
Has the US Open 2026 draw started yet?
No. The main draw begins on Sunday 30 August, with the draw ceremony taking place on Thursday 27 August.
Why is Jannik Sinner not playing the US Open?
Sinner withdrew with a right knee injury. His last match was his Wimbledon final win earlier this year.
Who is the new men's top seed?
Alexander Zverev is projected as the men's No. 1 seed with Sinner out of the draw.
Where can I check updated US Open outright odds?
You can find live outright and match odds on the US Open hub at Sportsbet.io, updated as the seeding list and draw are confirmed.
