NBA First Week: Early Overreactions and How the Futures Market Has Moved
The NBA first week: early overreactions and how the futures market has moved make up a story with three threads: the 76ers' opening-night win at the champion Knicks, a Thunder win in San Antonio, and a Jalen Williams injury that has pushed the Spurs back ahead of Oklahoma City on the odds board. A handful of games prove very little, but the market has already moved.
NBA First Week - Week 1 in Five Results
Below you'll find the biggest overreactions, how the championship prices have shifted, which reactions deserve respect, and where to check NBA odds for yourself.
- 76ers 106, Knicks 100 — Philadelphia spoiled the Knicks' championship night as 5.5-point underdogs, with Tyrese Maxey scoring 28, Jaylen Brown 19 and LeBron James posting 14 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in his debut
- Thunder 116, Spurs 104 — Oklahoma City won in San Antonio as slight underdogs in a Western Conference Finals rematch, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 32 and Victor Wembanyama going 1-for-13
- Spurs finish the week 1-2 — after losses to Oklahoma City and Houston, they beat a depleted Dallas without Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving
- 76ers start 3-1 — a strong early record for the new-look team
- Thunder lose Jalen Williams to injury — the setback that has moved the futures board
The Overreactions: Which Ones Deserve Respect?
"Philadelphia is going to win the East"
The case is stronger than most overreactions. The 76ers held the Knicks to under a point per possession on opening night, and Maxey, James, Brown, and VJ Edgecombe are dangerous in the open floor. But it's four games, Joel Embiid's health is still the biggest variable, and the champion Knicks have barely moved in the market at +1000. If you follow this storyline, you can see how prices shift in live basketball betting on Sportsbet.io.
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is MVP again"
Gilgeous-Alexander's 32 points, three steals and three blocks in San Antonio fed the MVP talk immediately. The caution is the supporting cast: without Williams, he may need to carry even more of the offence, which helps his MVP case and hurts the Thunder's title one.
"The Spurs have a Wembanyama problem"
Wembanyama's 1-for-13 opener and a 1-2 week made the Spurs look flat, and their 14th-ranked net rating after three games backs up the early concern. It's a short sample for a team that reached the Finals last season, and the market still prices them as co-favourites.
"The Knicks are in trouble"
Losing the banner night at home stung, but the Knicks are still the defending champions, and the price barely moved. It's the overreaction the market is correctly ignoring so far.
How the Championship Futures Have Moved
The most visible shift is at the top. Before the season, the Spurs were around +270 (3.70 in decimal odds) and the Thunder around +240 to +260 (3.40 to 3.60). After Williams' injury, FanDuel moved the Spurs to +300 (4.00) and the Thunder to +340 (4.40), while DraftKings and BetMGM had both teams between +295 and +300 (about 3.95 to 4.00).
- San Antonio Spurs: +300 (4.00), about a 25% implied chance, and +165 to win the West
- Oklahoma City Thunder: +295 to +340 (3.95 to 4.40), about 22.7% at FanDuel, and +185 to win the West
- Philadelphia 76ers: +850 to +950 (9.50 to 10.50), shortening from +900 to +1000
- New York Knicks: +1000 (11.00), unchanged
- Boston Celtics: +1200 (13.00), shorter than the +1400 they started at
- Toronto Raptors: +1400 (15.00), down from +2200 to +2500, and Minnesota Timberwolves +1700 (18.00)
Prices vary by book. Sportsbet.io's NBA outrights page is where season-long markets are listed, and its odds can be switched between decimal, American and Hong Kong formats in your settings.
What the Movement Tells You
Two things stand out. First, injuries move futures faster than results: the Thunder won on opening night and still drifted, because Williams affects both ends and gives them flexibility few teams can match. Second, the market is rewarding teams with a clear upside story, like Philadelphia and Toronto, while barely adjusting the champions.
That gap between narrative and price is where a futures bet can find value, and where it can lose money too. Remember that a season-long bet ties up your stake until June, and check the basketball hub for the leagues and markets listed.
How to Handle Early-Season Futures
Compare prices across books, don't treat four games as proof, and keep an eye on injury news, since a single injury can move a market more than a loss. The upcoming matches page shows what's coming next across every sport.
Betting Responsibly Through the NBA Season
An 82-game season, and the sort of daily storylines that come with one, can tempt you to keep adding bets as prices move. Treat every overreaction above as one opinion among many, not a guaranteed result, and set a budget for the whole season rather than topping it up each time a price shifts.
Account tools such as deposit limits, loss limits, and time-outs help keep your betting within a budget you're comfortable with. Sportsbet.io's responsible gambling page explains how to set these up, and its sportsbook is where you'll find the full list of markets. Betting should stay entertainment, not a way to chase back a loss from an earlier bet.
If gambling has stopped feeling like entertainment, confidential support is available from:
Age and identity checks apply, and betting is restricted to those who meet the legal gambling age and requirements in their jurisdiction.
FAQs: NBA First Week and Futures
Who are the NBA championship favourites after week one?
The Spurs are around +300 and the Thunder between +295 and +340, with the 76ers next at about +850 to +950.
Why have the Thunder's title odds drifted?
Jalen Williams' injury, which affects both ends of the floor and his role as a secondary creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Did the 76ers beat the Knicks on opening night?
Yes, 106-100 at Madison Square Garden, as 5.5-point underdogs, in the Knicks' first game as champions.
How did the Spurs start the season?
They went 1-2 in the first week, losing to the Thunder and Rockets and beating a depleted Mavericks side.
