US Open semi-final preview: the final four in New York
Take a closer look at our detailed US Open semi-final preview blog below! The final four in New York gives you four high-profile clashes to assess as Flushing Meadows moves towards championship weekend.
The men’s draw has produced an all-American meeting between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe, while Alexander Zverev faces Karen Khachanov. In the women’s draw, defending champion Aryna Sabalenka meets Jessica Pegula and new world number one Elena Rybakina takes on 2023 champion Coco Gauff.
The US Open schedule puts the women’s semi-finals on Thursday, September 10, with the men’s semi-finals following on Friday, September 11. The finals are then scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.
Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe: an all-American showdown
The first men’s semi-final is one of the biggest stories of the tournament. Eighth seed Ben Shelton and 11th seed Frances Tiafoe are the first Black American men to meet in a Grand Slam semi-final during the Open Era, giving the match significance beyond the result.
Shelton arrives after one of the tournament’s standout wins, defeating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set thriller that finished at 3:33 a.m.
He showed resilience through a four-hour-plus contest and produced a huge 146 mph ace to close it out. Tiafoe also had to fight through a five-set quarter-final against Alex Michelsen, so physical recovery is an important factor for both players.
For your betting analysis, focus on serve quality, first-strike tennis and stamina. Shelton can put immediate pressure on opponents with his left-handed serve and explosive forehand, while Tiafoe’s athleticism and ability to change rhythm make him dangerous in extended exchanges. The player who handles the big points and fatigue best could control the match.
If you prefer to compare multiple markets rather than focusing only on the winner, review upcoming tennis fixtures before placing a wager.
Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov: experience against momentum
Alexander Zverev enters the other men’s semi-final after dismantling Botic van de Zandschulp 6-2, 7-5, 6-1. The German top seed is back in the last four after another deep Grand Slam run and has already shown he can handle long matches during the tournament.
Karen Khachanov reached the semi-finals after Alexander Blockx retired while Khachanov led 6-2, 7-5, 3-2. That gives the Russian a different physical profile heading into the clash because he did not have to complete the quarter-final. Khachanov is also returning to the US Open semi-finals for the first time since 2022.
Zverev’s serve and baseline consistency make him the natural favourite on paper, but Khachanov has enough power to disrupt long rallies. Look at break-point conversion, second-serve performance and the number of free points each player earns. Those details can be more useful than rankings alone when assessing a semi-final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: another New York rivalry
The women’s semi-final line-up is unusually strong: all four top seeds have reached the final four at a Grand Slam for the first time since Wimbledon 2009. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka now faces third seed Jessica Pegula.
Sabalenka has reached the US Open semi-finals for a sixth consecutive year and is chasing a third straight title. She survived her toughest test of the tournament against Linda Noskova, winning a deciding-set tiebreak after splitting the first two sets. That ability to stay composed under pressure is central to her title defence.
Pegula has enjoyed an outstanding 2026 season, reaching five finals, but she is still searching for her first Grand Slam title. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 9-4, although Pegula has won two of their last three meetings. That recent improvement makes this more competitive than the overall record suggests.
When you assess this market, compare first-strike power with consistency. Sabalenka can shorten points with her serve and groundstrokes, while Pegula’s ability to absorb pace and redirect the ball can force Sabalenka into longer patterns.
Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina: the new No. 1 against a home favourite
Elena Rybakina confirmed her rise to world number one by defeating Zheng Qinwen in the quarter-finals. She now faces Coco Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion and one of the biggest home favourites in the draw.
Gauff had to recover from a set down against Mirra Andreeva, saving two match points before winning 2-6, 7-6, 6-2. Her ability to reset under pressure could be decisive against Rybakina, who has the serving power to take control of points early.
Their head-to-head is tied at 1-1, although Rybakina won their most recent meeting in the Canadian Open semi-finals. That adds another layer to the match: Gauff has the Arthur Ashe crowd behind her, while Rybakina arrives as the newly crowned world number one.
For deeper live analysis, Sportsbet.io also offers in-play tennis betting with markets that can change as momentum shifts during a match.
Best betting angles for the semi-finals
The strongest approach is to avoid betting purely on reputation. At this stage, every player has already shown the ability to handle pressure, so recent match workload, serve performance, head-to-head history and the physical demands of the quarter-finals all deserve attention.
In the men’s draw, Shelton-Tiafoe has the ingredients for a close contest because both Americans have demonstrated resilience in five-set matches. Zverev’s cleaner quarter-final makes him appealing on the winner market, but Khachanov’s power and fresher legs cannot be ignored.
In the women’s draw, Sabalenka’s experience at this stage of the US Open is a major positive, while Pegula’s recent record against her creates a value angle. Gauff-Rybakina is arguably the hardest match to call, making set betting or live markets worth monitoring instead of forcing a pre-match position.
Before you make any selection, check the latest US Open tennis markets on Sportsbet.io for current prices and available match markets.
Our semi-final predictions
For the men, Zverev has the edge over Khachanov because his serve, movement and consistency give him more ways to win points without taking unnecessary risks. The Shelton-Tiafoe match is much closer, with Shelton’s serving power giving him a narrow advantage after his statement win over Alcaraz.
For the women, Sabalenka’s familiarity with the US Open semi-final stage makes her the pick against Pegula, although the American has enough recent head-to-head success to make the matchup competitive. Gauff-Rybakina is the toughest call, but Rybakina’s serve and new world No. 1 status give her a slight edge.
Responsible gambling
Tennis betting should remain entertainment, not a guaranteed source of income. Set a budget before you bet, keep stakes within what you can afford to lose and avoid chasing a losing wager. In-play betting can move quickly, so take time to assess your position rather than reacting emotionally to every point or momentum swing.
For independent gambling support and safer-gambling information, you can visit the National Council on Problem Gambling, GamCare, Gambling Therapy or BeGambleAware. If betting stops being enjoyable or starts affecting your finances or daily life, consider taking a break and seeking professional support.
US Open semi-final preview: FAQs
When are the 2026 US Open semi-finals?
The women’s singles semi-finals are scheduled for Thursday, September 10, with the men’s singles semi-finals scheduled for Friday, September 11.
Who is in the US Open men’s semi-finals?
Ben Shelton faces Frances Tiafoe, while top seed Alexander Zverev meets Karen Khachanov.
Who is in the US Open women’s semi-finals?
Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula, while Elena Rybakina plays Coco Gauff.
Who are the favourites to reach the US Open finals?
Zverev has the strongest seeding advantage in the men’s draw, while Sabalenka and Rybakina bring major-title experience into the women’s semi-finals. Shelton, Tiafoe, Pegula and Gauff all have credible routes to the final.
Where can you find US Open betting markets?
Sportsbet.io’s tennis section provides US Open match markets, with live tennis betting also available for eligible matches.
