Turn the odds in your favour with positive EV betting mastery
Looking to maximise profit or minimise losses? Try positive EV betting, a simple solution even beginners can learn and use. It follows the fundamentals of expected value (EV) to determine if a bet is safe or risky.
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Positive EV betting is simple to grasp but requires some learning to apply effectively. Sportsbet.io offers an easy-to-understand guide to positive EV betting — what it means, how it works in sports betting, and why it can help you win more over time.
What is expected value?
Not to be confused with expected goals (xG) values, expected value (EV) is the difference between the sportsbook’s posted odds and the true odds. Here’s what those variables mean in EV sports betting:
- Sportsbook’s posted odds – This refers to the odds provided in a bet or outcome at any time. This can change because Sportsbet.io offers dynamic odds that adjust according to trends. Fluctuations are more frequent during in-play, so getting the EV is better in future betting than live.
- True odds – This is the real estimation of a bet’s chance to win. Sportsbooks use them as baselines, then increase/decrease the odds based on market action. To get these values, you need to find market makers.
To get the EV, you only need three variables: the true odds, the size of your bet, and the size of your payout. When you have them, replace the values of the formula below:
(True odds x the expected profit) - (Probability of losing x potential loss)
The first step is to get the closest estimates you can get of the true odds. If they are written in percentages, turn them into decimals by dividing them by 100. Market makers are the best sources for these estimates, but you can also use Google’s match overview for a quick example.
Here’s an example of an EV formula in practice:
The sportsbook posted odds in this equation is the line of your prediction. You can get the expected profit in your Sportsbet.io bet slip. It is immediately calculated when you select an outcome and input a bet size. Subtract your bet size from the payout to get the net profit. Meanwhile, the size of your bet is the potential loss.
The probability of losing is the sum of the odds of the other possible outcomes. For example, a three-way 1x2 bet in football has Team A, a draw, and Team B outcomes. If you bet on Team A, then the probability of losing is the (probability of a draw + Team B's winning probability).
It is set in decimal format, but the formula works in American and Hong Kong, too. The sportsbook's posted odds are only important for getting the payout in the equation.
Types of expected value
You have two possible outcomes when you calculate EV, namely positive and negative. What you get determines your bet. Here’s what each of them means:
Positive Expected Value
Positive EV (+EV) happens when the EV formula shows a positive value. This shows that you have a high probability of winning that bet based on true odds. If you have multiple positive EV bets, then you secure long-term profit even if some of them lose.
Football sample
Here is a simulation of a positive EV bet in football:
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Stade Reims odds = 22%/100 = 0.22
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Draw odds = 48%/100 = 0.48
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FC Metz odds = 29%/100 = 0.29
Here are the odds posted on Sportsbet.io as of writing for the Ligue 1 event:
In this simulation, you are betting on a draw in a match between Stade Reims and FC Metz in Ligue 1.
Given:
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True odds = 0.48
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Bet size / potential loss = 100 USDT
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Expected profit = 215 USDT (315 USDT total payout)
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Probability of losing = 0.48+0.29 = 0.77
Calculation:
(0.48 x 215) - (0.77 x 100) = 26.2
Conclusion:
Your bet has a positive expected value of 26.2.
Negative Expected Value
A negative EV (-EV) happens when the EV formula ends up with a negative outcome. This shows that the potential return is lower or that the risk is too high. Bettors should avoid EVs that are too high, unless they are confident that the bet will win.
Horse racing example
This example uses the R Kembla Grange event scheduled for 3rd June 2025, with bets on Strassman to win first place. The formula changes a bit to get the win rate probability of a horse in a horse race compared to football. There is no database helping you to find the win rate, so you have to calculate it using implied probability (1 divided by decimal odds).
Strassman is listed to win with 9.00 odds, which means his implied probability is 1/9.00 = 0.111 or 11.11%. To get the probability of losing, simply subtract the decimal probability of winning from 1.
Probability:
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Strassman's probability to win = 0.111
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Probability of losing = 1 - 0.111 = 0.889
Given:
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True odds = 0.111
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Bet size / potential loss = 100 USDT
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Expected profit = 800 USDT (900 USDT total payout)
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Probability of losing = 0.889
Calculation:
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(0.111 x 800) - (0.889 x 100) = -0.1
Conclusion:
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Your bet has a negative expected value of -0.1
Why is the expected value significant in betting?
Knowing the EV formula allows you to make easy decisions when looking for safe bets. This is useful for when you’re unsure of how an outcome will end up, which happens a lot when you’re betting on teams you’re unfamiliar with. You should still do some research, like knowing the top football trades and which teams they play for, and EV supplements that.
Positive EV sports betting helps you reach betting requirements on active promotions. You are hitting two birds with one stone–winning long-term profits in sports betting as well as completing any commitments you have with Sportsbet.io.
It should be noted that positive EV betting does not guarantee winning wagers. It simply gives you an estimate of the value of a bet. Thus, you get more value out of plus EV betting the more predictions you make. Use Sportsbet.io’s extensive coverage on sports and esports to your advantage because every fixture is ready for betting.
Explore positive EV betting at Sportsbet.io
Positive EV betting benefits greatly from having a wide spread. We cover every major domestic and international tournament in most sports, giving you plenty of options. Each one comes with an extensive list of fun markets with competitive odds, so you can have a variety of predictions ready at any time.
To give you an even better estimate of every event, we also show data on the event and its participants. You can review the game’s pre-match summary, lineup, and general head-to-head comparison before you place a bet.
Sportsbet.io also offers lots of fun and thrilling promotions to enhance your betting experience. We have giveaways, tournament jackpots, and prize pools where you can get a share of risk-free bets to bet on sports or esports. Some of these are tied to a sport/game, so read the description to see eligible bets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are frequently asked questions about EV betting:
What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?
EV betting is a system that uses statistics to determine a bet’s value. This shows whether that prediction is safe or risky, helping you maintain long-term profitability in a series of bets.
How do I calculate the expected value for a bet?
Use this formula to calculate EV = (True odds x the expected profit) - (Probability of losing x potential loss).
How can I find value bets on Sportsbet.io?
You can find value bets on future bets, before market activities change Sportsbet.io’s posted odds too much. Then, use the EV formula to determine a bet’s value.
How are closing line value (CLV) and positive expected value (+EV) connected?
They are not. Closing line value (CLV) is about maximising the profit in a winning bet. Expected value (EV) is about ensuring a safe wager, even if some of those bets lose.
Is expected value (EV) betting risky for beginners?
No, it’s the opposite. EV betting helps beginners find safer bets. It’s great for bettors who are not yet well-versed in sports to make a confident prediction.
Can I use expected value strategies with live betting or parlays?
No. Live betting odds change all the time because of frequent market changes. EV betting is about finding long-term profitability even if some bets lose, so a parlay is also off the table.
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