Mastering Expected Goals (xG): Your guide to smarter football betting
What if there was a way to back your betting expectations with solid numbers before placing your wagers? When it comes to predicting outcomes in football games, relying on vague comparisons and loose estimations can leave you unsure. This is where the expected goals (xG) offer in football betting comes in.
Learn everything there is to know about xG and how you can use it to your advantage, right here on Sportsbet.io:
Bet on live football fixtures here
What is xG in football?
Expected goals is a mathematical model used to assign a numerical value to one’s scoring chances in football. It’s a helpful tool for sports analysts, tipsters who share their xG betting tips, and sports fans who want to make informed predictions of upcoming fixtures. They’re not designed for bookmakers but tipsters offer expected goals betting formulas to guide their recommendations.
At its core, xG estimates a player or team’s likelihood to score a goal per shot. Its results are expressed in numbers from 0 to 1 where 0 means there is no way to score and 1 means the attempt to score is 100% going to succeed. However, these absolutes are impossible so every soccer expected goals value calculation is between 0.01 and 0.99.
Imagine that the value of 1 equals a 100% success rate for contextualising bookmaker expected value. Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United has 0.32 xG in the 2024/25 English Premier League season. This means he is expected to have a 32% success rate on scoring a goal. This data is based on Barnes’ past performances. He proved that he can score 3 or more goals out of 10 attempts in a match.
What does xG mean in football stats?
While a single shot’s expected goals can never be higher than 1, you’ll encounter players stat sheets showing xG values of 2 or even beyond 30. It usually comes with a time frame for the season or the player’s whole career. The xG meaning in football refers to how many points they are expected to score throughout that timeframe.
Using Barnes as an example again, his cumulative xG from his debut to the 2024/25 EPL season is 34.68. This is considering the 42 goals he’s scored in 171 matches he’s played in thus far. It means you can expect Harvey Barnes to score at least 34 to 35 goals if he takes the same number of shots he’s taken since he debuted in the EPL.
How xG soccer is calculated for football
The details used in calculating the soccer expected goal value are often situational. It first finds the player’s normal xG based on performance then deducts or increases it based on the following:
-
Distance from the goal: The farther away, the lower the xG.
-
Defender pressure: More defenders around the player lowers the xG.
-
Shooting angle: The sharper the angle, the tougher the shot, reducing the xG.
-
Size of the target: A clearer path to the goal increases xG.
-
Goalkeeper position: A well-placed keeper lowers the player’s chances of scoring.
Calculating the expected goal value for football betting is done using data from past matches and doesn't always focus on specific players. Most expected goals prediction websites use artificial intelligence (AI) to process years' worth of data for every possible situation.
Given the complexity of the matter, no expected goals calculator is available to the public. Finding the xG is best reserved for websites with the teams and resources. You may refer to their charts when football betting using xG rather than work on your own.
Think fast: Place your wagers on Rapid Bets
How to use xG in sports betting
Disclaimer: The expected goals soccer value is not used to predict a match’s outcome. It only estimates what a player or a team is capable of based on their history. These are simply numerical expectations and they are often precise but not spot-on.
The xG is just there to give you a precise numerical estimate of how well players are likely to perform. When betting on a match where both teams have a low xG, you can comfortably bet on ‘under 2.5’ in the total goals market.
Most players reach goal numbers alternatingly below and above the expected goals calculation. However, some players can overperform from their xG by a large margin and using the expected goals betting strategy tells you which players are amazing this season. This is rare but one example in the 2024/25 season like Tottenham Hotspur F.C’s Son Heung-min.
Without expected goals, football fans would be debating whether someone like Son Heung-min is better in 2024/25 than he was in 2023/24. xG helps fans and bettors have an objective approach to players and how they perform. However, the expected goals model in betting gives everyone a common ground that they can use to measure exactly how well he improved.
Why does xG matter in football?
To clarify the answer to ‘what is xG in football?’, it’s important to emphasise that its goal is to add numerical values to players and teams. They are there simply to give football fans reference on player performance. Even without a proper expected goals calculator, the insight you get prevents your predictions from deviating from what’s possible.
Finding out how to use xG for football betting gives you plenty of leverage to make an educated bet in score-related wagers. Use this effectively to determine which team or players are going likelier to win a head-to-head. Likewise, you can also use xG football data to make a guided bet on correct score markets.
Frequently asked questions
Learn more about xG from these frequently asked questions:
What is soccer’s expected goal value?
There are many kinds of xG. When it’s in values 0.01 to 0.99, it’s referring to a player’s likelihood to score a goal in a shot. For higher numbers like 10 or higher, it’s referring to how many points they’re expected to score for all the shots they’re going to take. Most of the time, this uses a player or club’s past performances in a given time frame.
Can I use expected goals for football betting?
Yes if you can, but it’s difficult to learn how to calculate expected goals. There are many factors involved that often need precise data from specific players’ past performances. Most tipster websites offering xG data often require using AI to help with the calculations. Rather than making your calculations, it’s better to use other websites’ estimations as references.
How to use expected goal value for soccer betting?
You first need to ask ‘wath is expected goals?’ for teams and players in a fixture. Then, compare their data to see which team has a strong xG value. Bet on the team with the higher value because it indicates that their team has a higher tendency to score than the opponent.
Can I rely on expected value gambling tips?
Yes, but with caution. Upon learning how is xG calculated in football, you’ll see that it’s often using old data with an assumption that history will repeat itself. You should expect deviations in these values, namely over performing or underperforming. The best way to use xG value is to just know which player or team tends to overperform and place your bet on them.
DISCLAIMER
The information provided by the blog above on Sportsbet.io is for general information purposes only. All information on the Site is provided in good faith, however, we make no representation, warranty, or guarantee of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, or completeness of any information or betting tips on the Site.
